It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
As per Opta, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
